Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
Seasonal bullish factors
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
(责任编辑:经济数据)
-
舒淇与林允生日 1976年4月16日,台湾省女演员舒淇出生。...[详细]
-
微信自媒体、微信电商的火爆,也成为站长关注的热点。...[详细]
-
广告、内容定制与付费 孙继海 北半球除了足球内容,还推出了NBA和电竞类节目,也有类似短剧的“十秒钟大电影”。...[详细]
-
据《华尔街日报》报道,摩根大通、美国银行、花旗银行和富国银行正在考虑联合推出稳定币
在那个全国人民饿肚皮的年代,带着6个孩子嗷嗷待哺的孩子,家还能过成什么样? 所以,杨国强一直到15岁,都没有鞋穿,夏天、冬天经常是光着脚上学。...[详细]
-
評價區塊鏈瀏覽器,鏈上偵探 ZachXBT 稱多個 L1 鏈仍缺乏好用的分析工具
从来没出过省,就手工做点绿豆糕卖,还爱卖不卖的。...[详细]
-
Paypal、Venmo 支援以太坊域名服務(ENS),簡化加密貨幣支付
诸如“出现错误”这样基本毫无意义的报错信息,会让用户感到苦恼。...[详细]
-
根据读懂新三板研究中心的数据,截止2016年3月16日,新三板共有1700只“僵尸股”,其中1018家企业没有流通股,682家企业有流通股。...[详细]
-
磷化工概念31日主力净流出8.53亿元,川发龙蟒、洛阳钼业居前
可能的解决的方式,是不是在美誉度,也就是你的美誉度是不是能够实现一个标准化? 李丰:作为一个曾经的教育行业从业者,我给所有同事和被投公司都提过一件事:至少有一条产品线对这个行业的意见领袖而言具有明确...[详细]
-
而且,基金对投资的案子数量有要求,这家投一点,那家投一点,每个公司或者项目都只了解皮毛,因为我不是实际经营者。...[详细]
-
游戏时间短,考验个人操作和团队配合能力,不做养成和体力值设定,凭技术决定胜负。...[详细]